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Table 2 Best-fit parameters and relevant dates obtained by the forecasted model for the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy

From: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

 

Italy

Lombardy

Emilia Romagna

Best-fit parameters

 A

3.67·105 *

7.29·104 *

2.71·105 *

 B

−3.51 *

−3.10 *

− 3.28 *

 Na

234,000 (214,000-251,000)

90,500 (82,500-97,500)

44,000 (38,500-51,000)

Relevant datesb

 Peak

27 March (33)

24 March (30)

1 April (38)

 End

28 June (126)

27 June (125)

19 June (117)

  1. * P < 10−5
  2. aBetween brackets we report 95% CI
  3. bBetween brackets we report the number of days since the outbreak started
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Global Health Research and Policy

ISSN: 2397-0642

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