Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 1 Future HIV epidemic scenarios

From: The potential impact of a “curative intervention” for HIV: a modelling study

  Pessimistic scenario Neutral scenario Optimistic scenario
Increase in condom coverage (2030 vs 2015) No increase (85% efficacy) 5 percentage point increase (85% efficacy) 10 percentage point increase (85% efficacy)
ART Coverage No increase in % PLWHA on ART beyond 2015 (70% efficacy) By 2030, ART reaches 80–80-80 (80% efficacy) By 2030, ART reaches 90–90-90 (92% efficacy)
VMMC Decrease in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 35% by 2050 Increase in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 60% by 2050 Increase in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 70% by 2050
Oral PrEP None available Oral PrEP (40% efficacy) reaches 3% coverage by 2030 Oral PrEP (40% efficacy) reaches 10% coverage by 2030
Other Changes None None Long-acting PrEP (75% efficacy) reaches 25% coverage by 2030. Vaccine (70% efficacy) coverage reaches 80% by 2050. Increase in percentage of adult men circumcised beyond 2015 (reaches 70% by 2050)
  1. The assumptions for the future HIV epidemic scenarios investigated in this analysis are given above. Each simulation is repeated for each of the three epidemic scenarios