Table 1 Future HIV epidemic scenarios
From: The potential impact of a “curative intervention” for HIV: a modelling study
Pessimistic scenario | Neutral scenario | Optimistic scenario | |
|---|---|---|---|
Increase in condom coverage (2030 vs 2015) | No increase (85% efficacy) | 5 percentage point increase (85% efficacy) | 10 percentage point increase (85% efficacy) |
ART Coverage | No increase in % PLWHA on ART beyond 2015 (70% efficacy) | By 2030, ART reaches 80–80-80 (80% efficacy) | By 2030, ART reaches 90–90-90 (92% efficacy) |
VMMC | Decrease in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 35% by 2050 | Increase in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 60% by 2050 | Increase in % adult men circumcised (60% efficacy), reaches 70% by 2050 |
Oral PrEP | None available | Oral PrEP (40% efficacy) reaches 3% coverage by 2030 | Oral PrEP (40% efficacy) reaches 10% coverage by 2030 |
Other Changes | None | None | Long-acting PrEP (75% efficacy) reaches 25% coverage by 2030. Vaccine (70% efficacy) coverage reaches 80% by 2050. Increase in percentage of adult men circumcised beyond 2015 (reaches 70% by 2050) |